{{$index+1}}
{{row.periodOrder}}
{{row.date | date:'M/dd/yyyy'}}
{{row.return | number:3}}
{{median | number: 3}}
{{row.return > median ? 'Up' : 'Down'}}
{{row.flipIsHeads ? 'Up' : 'Down'}}
{{row.return > median ? 'U' : 'D'}}{{row.flipIsHeads ? 'U' : 'D'}}
{{$index+1}}
{{row.periodOrder}}
{{row.flipIsHeads ? 'Heads': 'Tails'}}
{{row.flip2IsHeads ? 'Heads': 'Tails'}}
{{row.flipIsHeads ? 'H' : 'T'}}{{row.flip2IsHeads ? 'H' : 'T'}}
Row
Trial#
PRD#
Date
Return%
Median%
Market
Coin Flip
2nd Coin Flip
Pairs
«
‹
SORT
BY
RETURN
&
GO TO
MEDIAN
‹
«
^
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IFA
Indexes
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Matches
Expected:
50.00%
{{(data.length / 2) | number:0 }} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU+DD' : ' HH+TT'}}
Observed:
{{Math.round(1000 * (aboveMedianUpCoin + belowMedianDownCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:2 }}%
{{Math.round(1000 * (twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:2 }}%
{{aboveMedianUpCoin + belowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU+DD' : ' HH+TT'}}
Mismatches
Expected:
50.00%
{{data.length / 2 | number:0 }} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD+DU' : ' HT+TU'}}
Observed:
{{Math.round(1000 * (aboveMedianDownCoin + belowMedianUpCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:2 }}%
{{Math.round(1000 * (twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:2 }}%
{{aboveMedianDownCoin + belowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD+DU' : ' HT+TU'}}
Expected: 25.00%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU' : ' HH'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * aboveMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:2 }}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:2 }}%
{{aboveMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU' : ' HH'}}
Expected: 25.00%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DD' : ' TT'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * belowMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10|number:2 }}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10|number:2 }}%
{{belowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DD' : ' TT'}}
Expected: 25.00%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD' : ' HT'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * belowMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10|number:2 }}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10|number:2 }}%
{{belowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD' : ' HT'}}
Expected: 25.00%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DU' : ' TH'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * aboveMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:2}}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:2}}%
{{aboveMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DU' : ' TH'}}
Average Results of {{trialsCount | number}}▼ Trials of {{data.length | number}} Flips
Coin/Coin
Coin/Market
% of each outcome
Run Trial Again
Flip Again
Coin / Coin
When flipping two standard coins, there are four possible
outcomes: Heads on both coins (HH), Tails on both coins (TT),
Heads on the first coin and Tails on the second (HT), or
Tails on the first coin and Heads on the second (TH). Each of
these outcomes is equally likely. Since there are four
possible outcomes, the probability of each outcome is 25%.
Coin / Market
If the direction of the market, relative to the median return,
resembles a coin flip and you have a MarketCoin with UP on
one side and DOWN on the other, you now have a situation
that is like flipping two coins. The MarketCoin is shown
on the left and an Index Portfolio coin on the right. The
table below shows the expected 25% probability of each
outcome and observed outcomes for each flip of the coins.
The observed daily flipping of the MarketCoin (U or D)
compared to the actual daily returns of the index portfolio
coin (U or D) illustrates that the index portfolio is a
reasonable substitute for a second coin based on similarity
of the observed outcomes of each test to the expected
outcomes of 2 coins.
Bar charts comparing the expected to the average (mean)
of the observations of the four outcomes of the coin/coin
and the coin/market over multiple trials. Daily, monthly
and annual periods are available. You can run the trails
multiple times.
Two data tables are available. Click the Data icon from the
Coin/Coin mode or from Coin/Market mode. Most columns
are sortable, and the side controls allow for scrolling and
locating the mean return for the Coin/Market mode. The
most recent returns data are shown on the top row. Up and
down relative to the median and the random flip of the coin
are also displayed. The four possible pairs of Up and Downs
are shown in the last column. Click the blue Flip Again
button to flip the coin for each row.
U = Up - Above the Median Return
D = Down – Below the Median Return
H = Heads side of coin
T = Tails side of coin
Swap Coins ▼
Statistician Series
{{coin.name}}
Tune Out the Noise©
<
{{coin.name}}
IFA Coins
{{coin.name}}
{{coin.name}}
Daily
Monthly
Annual
1
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
{{periodLabel=='Days' ? 'Daily' : periodLabel=='Months' ? 'Monthly' : 'Annual'}}▼
Daily
Monthly
Annual
The median is one of the three types of averages, along
with the mean and the mode. The median return for IFA
Indexes and Index Portfolios for any time horizon (daily,
monthly, or annual) is the middle value when returns are
sorted from high to low or low to high, splitting the
historical data into 50% above and 50% below the median.
▼
Market Ups and Downs Relative to Median
Market Ups and Downs Relative to 0.00%
Market Ups and Downs Relative to the Mean
Set the Market to All Up Periods
Set the Market to All Down Periods