^
IFA Index
Portfolios
◂
▸
Matches
Expected:
50.0%
{{(data.length / 2) | number:0 }} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU+DD' : ' HH+TT'}}
Observed:
{{Math.round(1000 * (aboveMedianUpCoin + belowMedianDownCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:1 }}%
{{Math.round(1000 * (twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:1 }}%
{{aboveMedianUpCoin + belowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU+DD' : ' HH+TT'}}
Mismatches
Expected:
50.0%
{{data.length / 2 | number:0 }} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD+DU' : ' HT+TU'}}
Observed:
{{Math.round(1000 * (aboveMedianDownCoin + belowMedianUpCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:1 }}%
{{Math.round(1000 * (twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin) / data.length) / 10 |number:1 }}%
{{aboveMedianDownCoin + belowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin + twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD+DU' : ' HT+TU'}}
Expected: 25.0%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU' : ' HH'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * aboveMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:1 }}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:1 }}%
{{aboveMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UU' : ' HH'}}
Expected: 25.0%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DD' : ' TT'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * belowMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10|number:1 }}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10|number:1 }}%
{{belowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsBelowMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DD' : ' TT'}}
Expected: 25.0%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD' : ' HT'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * belowMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10|number:1 }}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin / data.length) / 10|number:1 }}%
{{belowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsBelowMedianUpCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' UD' : ' HT'}}
Expected: 25.0%
{{(data.length / 4) | number:0}} {{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DU' : ' TH'}}
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * aboveMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:1}}%
Observed: {{Math.round(1000 * twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin / data.length) / 10 |number:1}}%
{{aboveMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{twoCoinsAboveMedianDownCoin | number}}
{{marketcoin ? periodLabel + ' DU' : ' TH'}}
Average Results of 1,000 Trials of {{data.length | number}} Flips
Coin/Coin
Coin/Market
% of each outcome
Run Trial Again
Flip Again
Coin / Coin
When flipping two standard coins, there are four possible
outcomes: Heads on both coins (HH), Tails on both coins (TT),
Heads on the first coin and Tails on the second (HT), or
Tails on the first coin and Heads on the second (TH). Each of
these outcomes is equally likely. Since there are four
possible outcomes, the probability of each outcome is 25%.
Coin / Market
If the direction of the market, relative to the median return,
resembles a coin flip and you have a MarketCoin with UP on
one side and DOWN on the other, you now have a situation
that is like flipping two coins. The MarketCoin is shown
on the left and an Index Portfolio coin on the right. The
table below shows the expected 25% probability of each
outcome and observed outcomes for each flip of the coins.
The observed daily flipping of the MarketCoin (U or D)
compared to the actual daily returns of the index portfolio
coin (U or D) illustrates that the index portfolio is a
reasonable substitute for a second coin based on similarity
of the observed outcomes of each test to the expected
outcomes of 2 coins.
U = Up - Above the Median Return
D = Down – Below the Median Return
H = Heads side of coin
T = Tails side of coin
Swap Coins ▼
Statistician Series
{{coin.name}}
Tune Out the Noise Series
{{coin.name}}
Additional Coins
{{coin.name}}
Daily
Monthly