Uncertainty of Expected Return Fair Price Uncertainty Unfair Price IFA 100 Expected Return for the Buyer & Cost of Capital for the Seller Forecasted Monthly Return {{avgReturn}}% 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Good News and Forecasts Bad News and Forecasts Millions of Willing Sellers Millions of Willing Buyers IFA Index Portfolio {{portfolio}} {{dataRange}} Average Monthly Return: Standard Deviation: Growth of $1: {{avgReturn}}% {{stdDeviation}}% ${{growthOfDollar}} IFA Index Portfolios 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Expected Value: Expected value is a key concept in economics, finance, and many other subjects. In probability theory, the expected value of a random variable is the long-run average value of repetitions of the experiment it represents. For example, the expected value in rolling a six-sided dice is 3.5, because the average of all the numbers that come up in an extremely large number of rolls is close to 3.5. Less roughly, the law of large numbers states that the arithmetic mean of the values almost surely converges to the expected value as the number of repetitions approaches infinity. The expected value is a key aspect of how one characterizes a probability distribution. By contrast, the variance is a measure of dispersion of the possible values of the random variable around the expected value. The variance itself is defined in terms of two expectations: it is the expected value of the squared deviation of the variable's value from the variable's expected value. In decision theory, and in particular in choice under uncertainty, an agent is described as making an optimal choice in the context of incomplete information. For risk neutral agents, the choice involves using the expected values of uncertain quantities, while for risk averse agents it involves maximizing the expected value of some objective function such as a von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function. Source: Wikipedia: Expected Value Cost of Capital: In economics and accounting, the cost of capital is the cost of a company's funds (both debt and equity), or, from an investor's point of view "the required rate of return on a portfolio company's existing securities". Source: Wikipedia: Cost of Capital IFA Index Portfolio {{portfolio}} {{dataRange}} Average Monthly Return: Standard Deviation: Growth of $1: {{avgReturn}}% {{stdDeviation}}% ${{growthOfDollar}}